There are certainly plenty of candidates for the 2008 Missed-by-a-Mile Financial Prediction Award, but Standard & Poor's Investment Policy Committee shouldn't have any trouble making the finals.

The May '08 issue of S&P's Trends and Projections lead article:  the "Committee believes that from economic, fundamental, technical, and historical perspectives, the worst of the recent equity price decline is likely over."  Toward the end of the article:  the "Committee is maintaining its year-end 2008 target of 1560."

The Library received this issue on June 11th; the S&P 500 on that date stood at 1335.49.  At time of writing today, the S&P 500 is 874.26.

Permalink

The respected philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein claimed that a coherent philosophical outlook could be put forward in the form of a book of jokes.  (An actual attempt to do this is Plato and a Platypus Walk into a Bar.  If you find the philosophy-via-jokes concept interesting or useful, you might also gravitate toward the same author's Aristotle and an Aardvark Go to Washington, which has a political slant.)

That being said, what are we to make of the barrage of recession-related wit and humor that is hitting the Internet and the media?  Some of it is graphical, but most attempts to find some amusing verbal twist to otherwise catastrophic financial outcomes.  From this point of view, Bernie Madoff and late-night comedy were made for each other.  Restaurants answer the call with "stimulus brownies" and "recession burgers."

I choose to see these as signs of the resiliency and determination that ultimately will bring us to better, brighter days.  During the darkest days of the Civil War, Abe Lincoln was rebuked for his quips and funny stories.  He replied, "I laugh because I must not cry."

Permalink

U.S News & World Report has come out with a list of fifteen cutting-edge businesses that have an excellent chance to succeed in todays' gloomy economy.  They've stayed away from fads and flash-in-the-pan ventures.

For entrepreneurs, however, the present economic climate has peril as well as promise.  So U. S. News also details the five most overrated small-biz opportunities.  Are you surprised that contracting and restaurants make the list?  (Springfield, by the way, has roughly one restaurant for every 142 households.)

Permalink

"Yes, there have been 1.9 million jobs lost since the start of the recession last year...  But that still leaves 93.3% of us employed.  Close to 10% of homeowners have either missed a house payment or are in foreclosure...  But 90% of us are not in danger of losing our homes.  Yet we are wary."

There's a spreading virus of instability.  Yet Warren Buffett's rule of thumb is to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful.  This bucks the tide of the dominant (although shortsighted and irrational) tendency to presume that the economy must continue to walk the immediate path of today and the day before.

Buffett (and others) are well aware of 1975, 1980, 1990, 2003, and 2005.  Despite prevailing doom and gloom resulting from relentlessly poor economic figures, the stock market rebounded 23% (on average) during each following twelve-month period.

Has the worst passed or is it yet to come?  The alert investor, business owner, and consumer will want to focus on facts rather than fears.

Permalink

Times are hard for many small businesses.  Times are even harder for small businesses that are just trying to get off the ground.

Suppose there was somewhere that small businesses could go to get free, highly experienced, highly diversified mentoring?  Suppose it was local and readily accessible?  Suppose that it could accomodate quite a range of scheduling issues?

No need to suppose.  The Springfield/Joplin chapter of SCORE (Counserlors to America's Small Business) provides free and confidential business counseling tailored to meet the needs and objectives of most any small business.  Workshops are also offered for a modest fee for both start-up and functioning small businesses.  SCORE's goals are meet through its volunteer membership, made up of real-world present and former business owners and professionals with expertise in accounting, finance, marketing, management, business plan preparation, insurance, and many other areas.

SCORE members donate thousands of hours to help small businesses succeed.  If you have an underperforming small business, a small business that you're ready to take to the next level, or if you're wondering whether a small business could be part of your future, contact the local SCORE chapter.  You've got nothing to lose and much to gain!

Permalink

Michael Lewis has been called the funniest serious writer in America.  He casts a wide net, as evidenced by the books Liar's Poker (bond traders in the late 80's), The New New Thing (Silicon Valley), The Real Price of Everything (economic classics), and Moneyball (the economic aspects of baseball), among others.

His latest book (Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity) is scheduled for publication in early December '08.  Beginning with the crash of '87, he looks at the distinctive elements of that and each subsequent financial upheaval.  He also makes some attempt to consolidate what we should have learned from each event into an estimation of root cause.  But, as he sadly jokes:  "Not only does financial history seldom repeat itself, it seldom even rhymes."

An interview with the author and an excerpt from his book can be found on the NPR web site.  And if Black-Scholes sounds to you like the name of a sanitary landfill, visit the site and find out that it's something even less attractive and sweet smelling.

Permalink

In 1959, debt made up 58.8% of a typical household's disposable income.  In 2007, the figure jumped to 141.3%.  Mortgage debt (103.3% in 2007) was 37.1% in 1959; consumer credit went from 16.3% ('59) to 25.1% ('07).  Particularly disturbing, when one considers the recent Commerce Department report that consumers' disposable income has suffered its worst recorded decline.

Permalink

A glance at the year-to-date percentage change for major international stock indexes is a stark lesson in global economics.  Only Caracas (Venezuela) showed a single-digit YTD loss this afternoon; losses of 30% to 50% were quite common, with RTS (Russia) off an astounding 74.9%.

As of May, Russia had 87 billionaires, second only to the US.  At least half of them probably will lose their billionaire status in '09.  In the past five months, Russia's top 25 high net worth individuals have seen something on the order of $230 billion fly the coop.  A bizarre offshoot of this is that many magnates and oligarchs have taken to spending most of their time on their yachts; whenever they stroll about on shore, will angry crowds of shareholders, pensioners, and unemployed workers show up to pelt them with rotting fish and drive them aboard again?

Permalink

Amidst a business credit drought, more small businesses are relying on credit cards for everything from capital investment to putting gas in the delivery van.  Using personal credit cards for these purposes is a bad idea.  But business owners may not realize that even company credit cards are personally guaranteed--late payments on such a card could affect a business owner's personal credit score.  A business credit card also has fewer consumer protections than a personal credit card.

As small-business cards have pretty thoroughly replaced lines of credit, company owners have become painfully aware of revolving balances that grow as interest rates rise and of the fact that lenders are quite capable of raising rates and reducing credit limits--at any time and for any reason.

A more sensible alternative might be a credit union business loan.  Credit unions have not been exposed to the same losses as other financial institutions, enabling them to up their business lending by 36% in the first six months of this year.

Permalink

What is normal?  Many Portland Business Journal readers believe the Dow will return to normal by the end of the year and that normal is between 9,000 and 11,000.

Florida is not normal.  Financial meltdown and a high foreclosure rate have turned a comfortably Republican state into an electoral tossup.

Overseas, more than two out of three respondents to a New Zealand business poll believe that the current financial situation is a historical event on a scale similar to the Crash of '29.

Under the category of Extreme Discontent, a new survey shows that 62% of small business owners would cross party lines to vote for the presidential candidate who would do the most to help their business.  Nearly half feel that their business is in jeopardy.

Permalink

Even a short time ago, would any sane person be seriously considering the possibility of the complete nationalization of the US banking system?

Quicker than you can say "ted spread," it's become easy enough to find serious consideration of such a scenario.  Is this the sudden appearance of the idea that we'll have capitalism when things go well and socialism when things go poorly?

At this time, you have left the land of Then.  Welcome to the land of Now.  Enjoy your stay.

Permalink

• Fewer people are eating at restaurants, with that sector down 4% this year.  Grocery stores, however, are doing well, with the shares of big food companies up about 17%.
• Holiday gift purchases are likely to be cut back; analysts are projecting the weakest buying since the recession of '91.  People will be more likely to substitute "gifts of service" such as baby or dog sitting, car washing, etc.
• Shopping as a Sunday sport is taking a hit.  That ritual is being replaced by time with family and friends.
• Impulse buying and conspicuous consumption are on hold.  At least temporarily, consumers will rediscover thrift and savings.
• Even deep discounts by department stores aren't triggering consumer interest.  On the other hand, Wal-Mart and the discount membership clubs are doing just fine, thank you. 

Permalink

• Wall Street:  America's Dream Palace, by Steve Fraser.
  No other American institution has inspired such deep moral, cultural, and political ambivalence.  A bulwark defending commercial order?  Or a center of mad ambition?
• Full of Bull:  Do What Wall Street Does, Not What It Says, to Make Money in the Market, by Stephen T. McClellan.
  The author reveals the Street's secrets and deliberate deceptions, putting you on a level playing field with the world's biggest instituional investors.
• Blue Blood and Mutiny:  The Fight for the Soul of Morgan Stanley, by Patricia Beard.
  The behind-the-scenes story of the "Eight Grumpy Old Men" (former Morgan Stanley execs) who successful work to oust a CEO whose tenure had drastically damaged the company's hallowed reputation.
• Wolf of Wall Street, by Jordan Belfort.
  In the '90s the author became one of the most infamous names in American finance.  This all-too-true story of greed, power, and hedonism will leave you astounded, sickened or (very probably) both.
• Confessions of a Wall Street Shoeshine Boy, by Doug Stumpf.
  In this novel, a nobody brings to light an insider-trading scam that implicates a lot of VIPs.  While entirely fictional, the book captures the feelings that many people entertain about the securities industry today.
• Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst:  A True Story of Inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market, by Don Reingold.
  The author, a top analyst, believed in Wall Street.  He describes how his enthusiasm gave way to disgust as he gradually discovered how deeply corrupt Wall Street really was.
• Every Man a Speculator:  A History of Wall Street in American Life, by Steve Fraser.
  For more than 200 years, Americans have had a love-hate relationship with Wall Street.  Long an object of suspicion and fear, it eventually came to be seen as a more inviting place, an open road to wealth and freedom.

Permalink

• There could be 300 to 400 fewer US auto dealerships by the end of the year.  High gas prices are impacting automotive sales, but tight credit is doing even more damage.  Leases are particularly tough to get approved--and almost impossible if the vehicle is a truck or SUV.  "The banks are all scared to death of them."
• People could be faced with paying their credit card balance.  "You may suddenly find that the credit card company says we want the money back--all of it now."
• Could you wait a couple of weeks for your paycheck?  Many companies finance their day-to-day operations on short-term credit.  "When that dries up, it will affect all of us."
• Minimum credit scores for home loans have shot up from about 680 to 740.
• "We certainly could see tight credit having an effect on agricultural production."  --Ed Schafer, US Agriculture Secretary
• A giant college lender is cutting back to make sure it has enough money to keep lending to students.  Other lenders have begun rejecting loan applications they formerly would have approved.

Permalink

The US House of Representatives is adjourned for the Jewish High Holiday of Rosh Hashanah and is not scheduled to be in session until Thursday at noon.  In an ordinary year, little attention would be paid to this fact.  As you've probably noticed, this is not an ordinary year.

After yesterday's stock market debacle, investors seem to be concluding that the interim will give House members a chance to cherrypick the defeated bailout proposal, keeping the least objectionble aspects, ditching the most objectionable aspects, and crafting their own credit market fix.

In the whirl of events, it's important to distinguish between the stock market (which investors and the general media sorta understand) and the credit market (which until recently attracted little attention from the general public and still is seen as a turbulent sea of esoteric question marks).

For instance, as of late morning today the stock market is behaving in a fairly jublilant fashion, posting a rebound of several percentage points.  The credit market, however, is quite distressed.  The benchmark overnight LIBOR (a percentage rate that many banks use in lending money to each other) jumped to 6.875% from just over 2.5%.  This is the largest increase ever seen.

Without a Congressional fix, it is seeming less and less likely that the credit market and its implications for businesses large and small can get unstuck.  For today, however, we can watch the stock market and the best way to do so is to watch the Wilshire 5000, which is more broadly based and in unsettled times is more likely to reflect the market as a whole than the Dow Jones Industrials.  With any index, the percentage change is far more important than the point change.  It is well to bear in mind, however, that every Wilshire 5000 point change involves about a billion dollars in market capitalization.  So yesterday's freefall took over $800 billion out of stocks--more than $100 billion more than the bailout package that Congress and its constituents couldn't swallow.  Other estimates go as high as $1.2 trillion.  Investment and retirement portfolios, of course, take the bottom-line hit.

Permalink

The federal government's definition of poverty dates back more than 45 years.  Reflecting the limited statistical data of that time, it was built on government nutritional criteria.  A game first effort, it's been indexed for inflation but has never evolved.

Given the human and societal costs of poverty, we need a better measure than we currently have to identify who needs assistance and what kind of assistance.  The National Academy of Sciences, for instance, has a proposed approach.  The NAS approach would posit far more poor persons than "official" measurements.

Another subjective approach to an objective goal is the Self-Sufficiency Standard.  Unlike the federal standard, this guideline accounts for the costs of living and working as they vary by family size and composition and by geographic location.  A possible drawback is that the Standard assumes that all adults (whether single or married) work full-time.  Self-Suffiency Standards have been developed for a number of states, including Missouri.

So while nobody's too happy about where we are, there's not a lot of movement and consensus about where we should be in terms of quantifying this important issue.

Permalink

• Travel by train consumes 18% less energy per passenger mile than flying and 17% less than driving.
• The Amtrak train from Winona, MN has become a cheaper option than driving or flying for college students heading home to Chicago.
• The Amtrak run from Chicago to San Antonio (making stops in Poplar Bluff, St. Louis, and Little Rock) had 27% more passengers in May and 19% more in June, based in large part on higher gasoline prices.
• Amtrak and the various local and regional rail services are using all the servicable passenger cars they have at this time.

Are we ready for a passenger rail revival?  Ponder these top ten reasons to travel by train and decide for yourself.

Permalink

Nearly 20% of Americans now worry that they will never be able to stop working.  Rather than the baby boomer retirement tsunami so recently expected, a trend is developing that has people delaying their retirement.  On average, many federal employees already work for another four years after they become eligible for retirement.

This trend is likely to have negative consequences for already beleaguered financial institutions, many of which have invested tidy sums in building retirement services components.  Sharing the gloom will be retirement community developers, leisure and travel service providers, RV and golf equipment manufacturers, etc.  On the other hand, Social Security and (to some extent) Medicare should see slower-than-anticipated draw-down.

Financial think-tanks are now emphasizing that even one extra year of work can raise your standard of living throughout your retirement and that, while it may not be a good thing emotionally, delaying retirement is always a good thing financially.  Given today's poor market performance, meager investment returns during the first five years of retirement can significantly raise the chance that you'll outlive your money.  And if a single market downturn is highly disruptive to your retirement plans, then you probably weren't financially ready to retire in the first place.

Permalink

Under the guidance of T(homas) Boone Pickens, Mesa Petroleum established itself as one of the world's largest independent oil companies between 1973 and 1981.  It was Pickens' repeated attempts to take over companies much larger than his own that led to his and Mesa's greatest fame, however.  In the spring of '82, for instance, he made a play (ultimately unsuccessful but highly profitable) to take over Cities Service, an old-line company more than twenty times the size of Mesa.  (In a remarkable series of transitions, Cities Service became CITGO, was sold to the Southland [7-Eleven] Corporation, and ended up as a government-owned company of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez!)

Fast forward to 2008.  The post-Mesa Pickens, today a hedge-fund billionaire ranked 368th among the world's richest, has unveiled a national energy plan designed to cut US dependence on foreign oil.  While Pickens claims that he's too old and rich to care much about reaping a windfall from this plan, it should be noted that the plan is built around wind energy and natural gas, both areas of heavy Pickens investment.  Still, his ideas have a great deal more practical substance than anything that has emanated or is likely to emanate from Washington any time soon.

Permalink

Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil minister and head of London's Center for Global Energy Studies for eighteen years has a thought-provoking outlook on who's responsible for soaring oil prices--producers or speculators.

Sheik Yamani is likely to live on in quotation dictionaries for the 2001 statement:  "The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil."

Permalink

Back in 2006, the Midas muffler (etc.) people conducted a nationwide search for "America's Longest Commute."  The winner made a 186-mile drive--each way--five days a week to his job in San Jose, CA.

At today's gas prices (averaging $4.51 for regular in the San Jose area), that one-way trip would cost $41.94 in gas alone in a vehicle averaging twenty miles per gallon.  So a week's commuting would come in at about $420.

No word as to whether the lucky winner ("I have a great job and my family loves the ranch where we live.") is still making this trek.  Just a guess, but I doubt that Midas will be reprising this promotion any time soon.

Permalink

Could international debt cancellation help end global poverty?  From 1970-2002, Africa received some $540 billion in loans and paid back $550 billion in prinicipal and interest--with $295 billion yet to be paid!

The situation is complicated by a perfect storm of food scarcity, global warming, skyrocketing petroleum prices, and population explosion.  And further complicated by the inclement weather that is devastating normally abundant First World food crops.  The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates predict that the US corn stockpile will be cut in half (to a three-week supply) by the time the next crop is ready to harvest.  The soybean stockpile will shrink to a two-week supply before this fall's harvest.  More than 73 million people in 78 countries that depend on UN World Food Programme distributions are facing reduced rations this year.

Africa pays more in debt service than it receives in foreign aid, new loans, and assistance.  "Every child in Africa is born with a financial burden which a lifetime's work cannot repay."  --All Africa Council of Churches

Permalink

A loaf of bread costs over 200 million dollars. Before you dismiss this post as the product of a disordered mind, that was the actual price, in Zimbabwe dollars, as of May 15th. The price is higher today, since the inflation rate there rises on an hourly basis.

To deal with this, Zimbabwe's banknotes come in no lower denomination than $200,000. The largest denomination is 50 billion dollars. Coins? Don't even think about 'em.

At the moment, the Zimbabwe dollar can be exchanged for the US dollar on the basis of a billion to one.

Permalink

You are buying barrels of apples.  In each barrel are a certain number of bad apples that should be removed by the seller before delivery.  Would you agree to a deal in which only 2.5% of the apples per barrel were removed, regardless of the true number of bad apples?

According to a recent report, some investment banks agreed to reject only 2.5% of the loans one of the biggest subprime lenders sent the banks to package and sell to investors.

A quality control auditor who reviewed subprime loans says that 75% of the time "kicks" or kick-outs (loans so risky that they should have been rejected) ended up back in the investment pool and were sold.  "Passing the trash," as this is known, allowed the investment banks to make as much as a 40% return on equity every two months by peddling the resulting securitizations.

Permalink

Most articles about using social networking are radiantly positive.  (This is a representative sample.)

On the other hand, here are ten reasons not to bother with social networking.  To summarize its author's point of view:  "In the end, your activity level will be high and your results level will be low--or zero...  You'll love the contacts it seems you are building, but see how many of them lead to any business or profit.  The most communicative will be the least productive.  The early days of the Internet proved that you can accumlate a lot of clicks and no profits."

Permalink

We know that our banana peels and bread wrappers go to the landfill.  We know (hopefully) that our recyclable cans, bottles, newspapers, etc. go to appropriate facilities.  But how about our computers?  Our ships?  The byproducts and residue from making the stuff we use?  What we often don't know (and maybe don't really want to know) is that these things often end up in Third World countries.

Since 2000, it's been illegal to import electronic waste into China.  But tons of debris are smuggled in with legitimate imports, corruption is common among local officials, and China's appetite for scrap is enormous.  Appalling processing practices have left some water supplies undrinkable since the mid-'90s.

Garbage Cowboys, unscrupulous traders who transfer poisonous cargos from other vessels and "fly-tip" them in developing countries, have used the chaos in Somalia as a smokescreen behind which to make deals with local warlords to let them dump toxic wastes there.

Permalink

"A sea-change into something rich and strange."  In 1610 Shakespeare thus used the term "sea change" to describe a radical, fundamental transformation in a setting or situation.

(Not unakin to what happened to the American nutritional landscape in the early Nineties in Snook, TX when Frank Sodolak invented chicken-fried bacon.  Calories per serving:  493.  Total fat per serving:  40.6g.  But I digress.)

Sometimes a sea change can happen with very little fanfare.  Book publisher HarperCollins' recent announcement that its listings of upcoming releases will be available only online has made the back pages of most newspapers, if it was noted at all.  For booksellers and libraries, however, this may be a wrenching emotional transition.  The paper catalogs (usually mailed several times a year since the dawn of publishing) have had an almost iconic status and their methodical appearance has somehow validated an ongoing, ordered, and civilized existence.  Hapercollins (as well as other major publishers with similar plans is well aware of the impact and promises a gentle transition.

Permalink

It was once taken for granted that all swans were invariably, uniformly, unfailingly white.  When Europeans "discovered" Australia, however, they also discovered black swans.  Today the term "black swan" is used for an event that blasts apart the boundaries of received knowledge and rational expectation.

Kevin Phillips, who has made the circuitous journey from Reagan strategist to economic populist, challenges us to discern the black swan on the economic horizon.  In "Bad Money" (scheduled for 4/15 publication), Phillips suggests that the financial services sector, responsible for some 40% of economic growth and employment during the Bush presidency, as presently constituted is a WMD that ultimately will demolish not only itself but the fundamental economic parameters to which we are accustomed. The new economic America that will reluctantly emerge is likely to have vastly different expectations and structure.

(Have you come across the term "neutron loan" in the financial press?  Like a neutron bomb, a neutron loan destroys the people and leaves the houses standing.)

Permalink

Increasingly, renters nationwide are getting caught up in the foreclosure shuffle.  Rental properties, often purchased by speculators during the boom, now comprise 38% of foreclosures.  And "in most states, foreclosure itself automatically terminates a tenancy," says housing attorney Judith Liben.  In many cases, renters are also losing their security and pet deposits and other upfront expenses.

In Ohio, for instance, "the basic rule is ... if a home is foreclosed on, the lease is no longer good," says Scott Torguson of Southeast Ohio Legal Services.  "When they have to be out depends on the bank."

Most banks haven't the slightest desire to become landlords and require renters to vacate with a few weeks' notice.  A best-case scenario is a "cash for keys" incentive program that pays the renter off to move out quickly.  For many renters, however, the upshot is a notice from the bank that the rent is now some outrageous amount, a thinly-veiled invitation to leave with great alacrity.

Permalink

Milk prices up 26%.  Eggs up 40%!  After nearly two decades of inflation-resistant food prices, consumers are approaching the check-out counter with fear and trepidation.

The Kansas City Fed says that "today's momentum in food prices may be signaling a new erea of even higher food prices."  While they expect food price inflation to ease in '08, they see an increase well above the ten-year average of 2.6%.  The strongest price pressures are likely to come from fats and oils, cereal, and bakery products.

Likely to do well in this economic environment:  house/store/off/generic brands and private labels.  Susceptible to buyer flight:  organic/"whole"/"natural" foods.

Permalink

Business reference staff Mike DePue and Eric Deatherage offer two resources to help former Willow Brook employees find jobs that match their skills and experience:

ReferenceUSA* provides address, phone, and personnel information for more than 800 poultry slaughter and processing businesses in the U.S. Use the yellow page heading "Poultry Processing Plants". For a wider food industry approach, use "Food Processing" to access information on 3,200 facilities.

The web site Careers in Food allows users to search more than 5,000 current food and beverage manufacturing job listings.

For job search resources in other industries, take a look at the Minding Your Business Company Research page and the Library's InfoLink Employment page.

For more information about using any of these resources, contact the Library online or call 417-883-5341.

*A valid library card is required to use this database. Don't have a card? Apply online.

Permalink

Once normalcy returns, what will the financial sector look like and how will it behave?  Suggestions are beginning to emerge that the future will look far different than the past.

"We are going to have to create whole new ways of securitizing and funding debt of all types, but especially mortgages and consumer credit.  ...It is going to take time to replace a system that took decades to build," writes Bethany McLean of CNNMoney.  Profits in the financial sector had increased far beyond historic levels; if earnings return to sustainable levels, the subsequent shakeout is likely to have fundamental ramifications.

The advent of securitization led to a mindset among frontline lending officers that the money they were lending, since its underlying collateral was ending up in some distantly-removed asset pool, would allow the good loans that somebody must be making to carry the questionable loans that they themselves were making. As has become grimly obvious, however, that mindset only has any degree of validity in an up-market.

Permalink

The Elgin (IL) public library district hopes to break ground on a new facility this spring. It is to include a geothermal heating and cooling system expected to provide annual energy savings of $3,660.

Decades after geothermal technology has been established as a proven energy saver, less than 1% of US homes have such systems. Up to this point, installation of a geothermal system could cost twice as much as a new conventional gas or electric system.

Is there a future for geothermal? Its production and usage seem to involve no environmental degradation, something its competitors certainly can't claim. And what about geothermal electricity production?

Geothermal stocks are a mixed bag of Johnny-come-lately penny stocks and stocks with a respectable capitalization and track record. Among those showing stock-price growth over five years: Constellation Energry Group [CEG] (+223.8%); IdaCorp [IDA] (+48.52%); PG & E [PCG] (+185.23%); Raser Technologies [RZ] (+357.84%).

Permalink

During the years 1984-2004, a portfolio of clever ticker-symbol stocks (SEA, TAP, YUM, for example) would have beaten the market by a substantial and statistically significant margin.  "Would a Stock by Any Other Ticker Smell As Sweet?" describes this in exhaustive--and even exhausting--detail.  This 22-page paper was produced by three Pomono College economists.

In today's turbulent investment waters, however, results are mixed.  While LENS (Concord Camera) showed a recent six-month gain of 40.51% and BOOM (Dynamic Materials) was up an equivalent 34.91%, CASH (Meta Financial Group) declined 29.82%  and CAR (Avis Budget Group) dropped a whopping 51.27%.

Other entertaining (but not necessarily lucrative) symbols that might not have crossed your path:  MOO (Market Vectors, a livestock company); WOOF (VCA Antech, veterinary services); GEEK (Internet America); BABY (Natus Medical, medical products for infants); SEED (Origin Agritech Limited); UGLYX (Leuthold Undervalued and Unloved, a mutual fund specializing in undervalued companies); TINY (Harris & Harris Group, venture capital for tiny technology); DIET (eDiets.com); NUT (Macadamia Orchards); CHUX (O'Charleys restaurants); BID (Sotheby's); FUN (Cedar Fair, amusement parks); WOLF (Great Wolf Resorts); CAKE ( Cheesecake Factory).

Permalink

The S&P 500 contains 87 stocks that can be characterized as consumer discretionary investments. Clearly, the products and services offered by some of these companies are more discretionary than others.  I've subjectively picked a few of the companies that seem to me to be providing products or services that consumers could or would most easily dispense with (however reluctantly) in an economic downturn.  Their six-month stock price change percentage are listed below.

Starbucks (-33.73%). Fortune Brands [hardware, spirit & wine, golf products] (-21.97%). Harman Intl. Industries [audio products] (-63.13%).  Liz Claiborne (-47.76%).  Brunswick Corp. [sporting goods and services] (-35.51%). Carnival Corp. [cruise lines] (-7.25%).  Starwood Hotels & Resorts (-17.27%). Macy's (-20.91%). Expedia (-14.41%). Family Dollar Stores (-27.52%). Tiffany & Co. (-18.03%).

The six-month S&P 500 (as a whole) percentage change was -7.58%.

Permalink

Admittedly, this is a shameless plug for our Local History department and their informational and interesting digitized collections.  But it's also a remarkable backward glance at some of the foundational aspects of Springfield business history.

The past can still be seen in the Woodruff Building, the Heer's Building, the Kentwood Arms Hotel (now Missouri State University's Kentwood Hall, a residence facility), and Martin Chrysler-Plymouth (currently the Discovery Center).

In other cases, these postcards are all that remain of once vibrant businesses.  While Hultsman Oil Company, Eagle Tourist Court, the Baldwin Theatre, and the original Lohmeyer Funeral Home location (which was razed in '87 to become a Kentwood Hall parking lot) are long gone, they have left their mark, however subtle, on today's business scene.

For many possibilities that we haven't pointed out, visit the Historical Postcards site.

Permalink

In many respects, we still have the same mindset about business travel that is characterized by Willy Loman in the 1949 play Death of a Salesman. In fact, it hasn't changed that much since the stagecoach was the best way to get from here to there and telegraphy was considered cutting-edge technology.

While we await the definitive pychosocial study as to why we continue to hold fast to such a clunky way of getting things done, consider the bare-bones regime that many companies are imposing on their biz travelers.

Business Week has a top-notch web site titled Travelers Check. Two of their recent offerings: A Wily Road Warrior's Airport Tips and a call for entrants for the first annual Del Griffith Award for Business Travel, which went to the lucky(?) reader who submitted the most bizarre/painful biz-travel experience.  (Del Griffith--his title is Director of Sales, American Light and Fixture, Shower Curtain Ring Division--is the John Candy character in Planes, Trains and Automobiles.)

Permalink

We're just getting our heads around "collateralized debt obligations" (CDOs).  That's not to say that most of us understand their innermost workings, but we know that they're connected with subprime mortgages and that the connection isn't working out that well.

The latest exports from the Financial Chamber of Horrors are "credit default swaps" (purchased to hedge against CDO losses) and "constant proportion debt obligations" (which package indexes of credit default swaps).  The bottom-line number on these little beauties is $45.5 trillion, or about twice the size of the US stock market.

Since the market for the above-mentioned securities is unregulated (think financial Wild West here), the health of said market is difficult to gauge.  However, it is believed that the market value of the underlying contracts outstanding far exceeds the $5.7 trillion in corporate bonds for which they were designed as default protection.  The Feb. 17th New York Times front-page article by Gretchen Morgenson makes this relatively understandable; the paper edition is available at the Library Station or the Library Center, while the online edition is available to Springfield-Greene County Library cardholders.

Permalink

A "Valentine's Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey" is clearly something to be taken seriously.  However, it's just the tip of the informational iceberg when it comes to research into the economic aspects of Valentine's Day, the third largest spending season in the US.

If you want to be informationally immersed, look over the whole detailed survey, current and retrospective.

However, it's just possible that you'll find that more than a little daunting, so here's a lighter-weight option that will tell you (among other things) that 3% of pet owners give a V-Day gift to their pet.  Suburban Chicago's Daily Herald, looking for a new slant, picks up on an organic Valentine's Day trend in Schaumburg, IL.

Permalink

Al makes $50,000 per year while others are making $25,000 per year.  Tom makes $100,000 per year while others are making $250,000 per year.  Would you rather be Al or Tom?

Cindy is told that, as a store's 100,000th customer, she wins $100.  As a contest finalist, a man wins $1,000; Paula, the only other finalist, wins $150.  Would you rather be Cindy or Paula?

You are given $100 to split between yourself and your game partner.  If your partner accepts the proposed split, you each get to keep your share.  If your partner rejects the proposed split, neither of you gets any of the money.  How much should you offer?

See how the majority of people would answer these questions at Why People Believe Weird Things About Money.

Permalink

Samuelson is referring to the economic stimulus recipe that Congress and the Prez are whipping up for an election-year citizenry.  In his opinion, the package is either political symbolism and/or not likely to have much effect on a $14 trillion economy.

Part of the package will involve accelerated capital investment depreciation for businesses.  Chris House, co-author of a study of an earlier tax break, opines:  "It's like subsidizing bananas in the supermarket and then looking to see if total supermarket sales changed."  He believes that such measures offer slight benefit.

Syndicated columnist Marie Cocco notes that in every recession since 1958, Congress has enacted a temporary extension of unemployment benefits and that this has proven to be a surefire way of getting money to people who will spend it immediately.  So why is this now "extraneous spending" and out of the present package?

See the San Francisco Chronicle and the Gotham Gazette for understandable background.

Permalink

"Almost all business cards are terrible.  They are the leisure suits of the marketing world, the place where bad design not just lives, but thrives."

Thus saith Seth Godin, author, entrepreneur, and change agent.  Godin has a checklist of common business-card blunders, including the relationship between font size and cheesiness.  A good guideline is to use a font size no smaller than 7 or 8 point.

How would you react to a business card that sprouts vegetation?  Or a card with a quote from Oprah?  Or a superhero name (left over perhaps from a previous career in the World Wrestling Federation)?  Creativity and good taste can coexist!

And, please, don't use your predecessor's card with his/her name lined out and your name scrawled in!

Permalink

A) Have you given any thought to your 401(k) fees?
B) Do you even realize that you pay such fees?  (It seems that most people don't grasp this.)
C) Would you be astounded to find out that you may be paying 3% - 5% per year?

These expenses have a huge impact on how much money your 401(k) investment will eventually be worth.  Over thirty years, an extra 1% in fees can devour 20% of an individual's nest egg!

Permalink

Fair or foul, business/economic/financial 2007 has been a wild and interesting ride.  Fortune magazine has entered the election fray by nominating and electing the 101 dumbest moments in business for the past year.

Don't miss #7.  You'll never think of Toto as an adorable little dog again.

Permalink

Holiday cheer in the Springfield-area small business community has taken a big hit, due to the death on Sunday, Dec. 16th, of Cliff Groover.  Cliff's diligent and resourceful work for the local chapter of SCORE (Counselors to America's Small Business) helped many beginning and established entrepreneurs to realize their goals and aspirations.  Always an enthusiastic proponent of The Library and its services, Cliff had formerly served on its Board of Trustees.

His obituary gives only a hint of the selfless impact that Cliff had in quite a number of areas of the community over many years.  His unfailing friendliness to all, cooperative approach, and infectious optimism will be greatly missed by all who had the good fortune to come into contact with him.

Permalink

At this time of year, the stock market is anticipating a Santa Claus Rally.  This much-debated effect, to the degree that it actually exists, is supposed to propel the market higher in the last days of the year.

"If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears will come to Broad and Wall."

However, Santa's Stock Portfolio(TM) is looking rather holly jolly.  Beginning in 2002, Amegy Bank of Texas have tracked a list of Santa's "personal" stock picks.  Given his line of work, Santa zeroes in on the consumer discretionary and personal technology sectors.  Through December 13th, his 2007 portfolio is headed north (North Pole?) to the tune of 28%.  If you'd had Santa for your financial adviser, you'd have a five-year average return of 34%!

Permalink

Protecting people on the job benefits our economy, our communities, employers, workers and their families.

When small businesses tap into the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s many resources, incidents of injury and illness go down, insurance costs go down and workers' compensation payments go down. At the same time, employee morale goes up, productivity goes up, competitiveness goes up and profits go up.

One of OSHA’s most popular publications is the Small Business Handbook. This link lets you look at it online or order a paper copy; look for publication 2209.

Permalink

The front page of the October 31st issue of The Outlook, published by Standard & Poor's and found in the Reference area at the Library Center on South Campbell, has a chart integrating the occurence of recessions and housing slumps.  The accompanying Outlook article discusses this.

While S&P pegs the liklihood of a recession at 33%, Alan Greenspan and others see the odds as 50-50 or better.

Even the White House, a very reliable purveyor of sunny optimism, isn't sounding all that perky.

Permalink

Library staff member Eric Deatherage provided the following annotated Web site suggestions for persons with poor credit who are in search of fiixed-rate mortgages:

http://www.homeloans.va.gov/
VA home loan.  Not credit score driven.  Driven by credit history rather than credit score.  Certificate of eligibility required; the site explains how to get this certificate.  Zero down.  Debt to income ratio must be between 30 and 40%.

http://www.fha.gov/owner/loans.cfm#1
FHA home loan.  Fixed rate product.  Requires 3% down, but there are local donation programs that will cover that amount.  43% debt to income, including home, needed.

http://www.freddiemac.com/homepossible
Freddie Mac program.  Zero down.

Permalink

Library staff member Eric Deatherage suggests the following informational possibilities:

A refinancing program called an FHA Streamline can lower the rate of the owner in an FHA home loan without any closing cost (in cash or added onto the principle of the loan). 

The FHASecure program is designed to give a second chance to people who were previously in good standing but are now facing foreclosure.  It provides service for non-FHA ARM loans that have reset.

There is substantive Federal Housing Administration advice for people facing foreclosure.

Here's what it takes to obtain an FHA secured loan on a manufactured home.

There's also a VA Interest rate reduction program; lenders can lower VA home loan interest rates without closing costs.

Permalink

There are plenty of excellent books on how to create and promote your brand or even yourself as a brand. But knowing what NOT to do is an equally important of your strategy. Find tips and resources in the latest Minding Your Business newsletter.

Permalink

Your Money and Your Brain, a new book by Jason Zweig at The Library, explains why “the brain is not an optimal tool for making investment decisions” for most folks.

Read all about the science behind this in the October 2^nd issue of The Prudent Speculator, found in the Reference area at the Library Center on South Campbell.

Permalink

Left untreated, clinical depression is as costly as heart disease or AIDS to the US economy, costing over $43.7 billion in absenteeism from work (over 200 million days lost from work each year), lost productivity and direct treatment costs.

NAMI SW Missouri, a recent Expo 2007 exhibitor, and Mental Health America provide a solid overview of depression in the workplace.

Permalink

Library research indicates that consumer indebtedness and easy credit are no longer just an American phenomenon. Foreign banks, often in partnership with American lenders, are using every ploy from giveaways to cold calling to ingrain the buy-now, pay later concept. See the latest edition of the Library's Minding Your Business newsletter (pdf) for details.

Permalink

Has the crest of the wave hit the beach? If moribund subprime loans were hairballs, could we say that the economy has coughed most of them up?

Whatever unlovely analogy you might care to use, this subject may be a drag on the economy for quite a while.  Try Richard Benson’s Titanic-and iceberg analogy.

Jack Guttentag uses an optometric analogy (disaster myopia).

Permalink

It’s a common offhand assertion that 90% of new businesses fail. This has been so often heard for so long that it’s almost acquired the status of a self-evident truth. Where and what is the statistical verification for this? Well, it turns out that there really isn’t any. Studies that have been done tend to be fragmentary and dated. For a very good overview of what is known, Rhonda Abrams (whose views are well worth hearing on any business subject) covers this here.

Permalink